Daniel Plainview (Daniel Day-Lewis), right, makes a point to Eli Sunday (Paul Dano) in “There Will Be Blood”.
Part I in a Series
At the end of the film, “There Will be Blood,” wiped out in the Depression preacher Eli Sunday (Paul Dano) offers to sell millionaire Daniel Plainview (Daniel Day-Lewis) land to be drilled for oil. Plainview agrees at first, forces Sunday to renounce his faith, and then coldly tells him that that there’s no oil under the property because he has already drilled all the land around it.
“”Drainage! Drainage, Eli, you boy. Drained dry. I’m so sorry. Here, if you have a milkshake, and I have a milkshake, and I have a straw. There it is, that’s a straw, you see? Watch it. Now, my straw reaches across the room and starts to drink your milkshake. I… drink… your… milkshake! I drink it up!” Plainview tells Sunday.
A similar thing has happened over the last few years in the space industry. As the use of small satellites went from a trickle to a gusher, more than 100 startups formed to develop small rockets to launch the hundreds and eventually thousands of payloads that would need rides to orbit.
But, these startups have found the wells to be, if not exactly dry, then seriously depleted. The problem is not drainage but rather rideshares. And Daniel Plainview in this case is Elon Musk, whose SpaceX has found a way to capture a large share of the small satellite launch market with a series of Transporter missions.
Let’s take a closer look at what has happened since SpaceX launched the Transporter-1 mission in January 2021. We’ll start with what small launch providers have achieved during this period.
Electron launches from New Zealand on Sept. 15, 2022. (Credit: Rocket Lab)
Small Launch Vehicle Flights
Smaller rockets can be be used for dedicated launches for a single customer or rideshare missions with satellites from multiple clients. The table below shows launches by boosters with payload capacities below 1,500 kg over the past 22 months.
Small Launch Vehicle Rideshare & Secondary Flights
Payload Capacity: Under 1,500 kg
Jan. 1, 2021 – Nov. 3, 2022
| Booster | Successful Launches | Failed Launches | Payloads Launched | Payloads Lost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electron (USA) | 13 | 1 | 55 | 2 |
| LauncherOne (USA) | 4 | 0 | 34 | 0 |
| Rocket 3.3 (USA) | 2 | 3 | 23 | 7 |
| Long March 6 (China) | 4 | 0 | 19 | 0 |
| Kuaizhou-1A (China) | 7 | 1 | 10 | 1 |
| Ceres-1 (China) | 2 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| Alpha (USA) | 1 | 1 | 8 | 12 |
| Long March 11 (China) | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| Minotaur I (USA) | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Pegasus (USA) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Qased (Iran) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Hyperbola-1 (China) | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Simorgh (Iran) | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| SSLV (India) | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Total: | 39 | 11 | 169 | 30 |
Eleven boosters successfully launched 39 times carrying 169 satellites into orbit. There were 11 failures in which 30 payloads were lost. Three of the 14 rockets failed to orbit a single satellite.
Collectively, the launch vehicles have a failure rate of 22 percent since the beginning of 2021. There are wide disparities in reliability, of course. Rocket Lab’s Electron booster has a record of 13-1. LauncherOne, Long March 6, Long March 11 and Ceres-1 have launched 13 times with no failures. Kuaizhou-1A has launched eight times with one failure.
Many of these boosters are relatively new and have not flown very often. Failures are not uncommon during early launches. Firefly Alpha failed during its first flight, but succeeded the second time. The same is true for South Korea’s Nuri booster. India’s Small Satellite Launch Vehicle failed during its maiden launch attempt in August.
Although 39 launches and 169 satellites sounds like a lot, these numbers are dwarfed by the what SpaceX has launched over the past 22 months.
Falcon 9 launches 54 Starlink broadband satellites on Sept. 18, 2022. (Credit: SpaceX)
Transporter Missions
SpaceX made a big splash on Jan. 24, 2021, when its first Transporter rideshare mission launched a world record 143 satellites. Four more Transporter missions have followed with smaller numbers of payloads. A sixth Transporter flight is scheduled for next month. SpaceX has also launched 40 secondary payloads on other missions since January 2021.
SpaceX Transporter & Secondary Payload Missions
Jan. 1, 2021 – Nov. 3, 2022
| Date | Customer Payloads | Starlink | SpaceBees | Payloads |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transporter-1 | 133 | 10 | – | 143 |
| Transporter-2 | 85 | 3 | – | 88 |
| Transporter-3 | 114 | 0 | 0 | 114 |
| Transporter-4 | 28 | 0 | 12 | 40 |
| Transporter-5 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 59 |
| Subtotal: | 419 | 13 | 12 | 444 |
| Secondary Payloads (10 Launches) |
40 | – | – | 40 |
| Total: | 459 | 13 | 12 | 484 |
The five Transporter missions carried 444 payloads into orbit. The number included 459 payloads for customers, plus 13 SpaceX Starlink satellites and 12 SpaceBee spacecraft produced by Swarm Technologies. SpaceX acquired Swarm in August 2021. SpaceX launched 64 SpaceBee satellites on the Transporter-1 and Transporter-2 missions prior to the acquisition.
SpaceX has also launched 40 secondary payloads on 10 different flights since January 2021. Six secondary payloads were launched on four dedicated Starlink missions, with four Cargo Dragon flights carrying 26 satellites for deployment from the International Space Station. Four secondary payloads were carried on the launch of a GlobalStar communications satellite in June 2022. The Falcon Heavy launch on Nov. 1 carried four CubeSats.
Vega-C lifts off on its maiden flight on July 13, 2022. (Credit: Arianespace)
Other Rideshare & Secondary Payload Launches
Other large rockets have launched dedicated rideshare missions and secondary payloads.
Rideshare & Secondary Payload Launches*
Payload Capacity to Orbit: 1,500 kg and Above
Jan. 1, 2021 – Nov. 3, 2022
| Booster | Successful Launches | Failed Launches | Rideshare Payloads | Secondary Payloads | Lost Payloads |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soyuz-2.1a, Soyuz-2.1b (Russia) | 5 | 0 | 56 | 11 | 0 |
| Antares (USA) | 3 | 0 | 27 | 0 | 0 |
| Long March 8 (China) | 1 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 0 |
| PSLV (India) | 3 | 0 | 22 | 2 | 0 |
| Vega, Vega-C (Europe) | 3 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
| Long March 2D (China) | 2 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 0 |
| Long March 2C (China) | 3 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 0 |
| Epsilon (Japan) | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| Atlas V (USA) | 3 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Nuri (South Korea) | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| ZK-1A | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Long March 4B (China) | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Long March 4C (China) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Total: | 31 | 2 | 204 | 20 | 9 |
* Excludes Transporter, Starlink & OneWeb Launches
Source: Wikipedia
There have been 31 launches that have carried 224 payloads — 204 rideshare and 20 secondary — into orbit since SpaceX began its Transporter missions in January 2021.
There were two launch failures with the loss of nine payloads. South Korea’s Nuri rocket failed on its maiden flight in 2021 with the loss of a dummy satellite. Nuri successfully launched seven payloads earlier this year. Japan’s Epsilon rocket failed with the loss of eight satellites on Oct. 12. It was the first failure in six Epsilon launches.
Soyuz-2 rocket launches 34 OneWeb broadband satellites from the Guiana Space Center. (Credit: Copyright ESA-CNES-Arianespace/Optique Video du CSG – P Piron)
Dedicated Launches
The trend toward launching large constellations composed of hundreds or thousands of satellites has limited opportunities for small satellite launch providers. This can be seen in the launches of SpaceX’s Starlink and OneWeb’s satellite broadband constellations.
Starlink & OneWeb Launches
Jan. 1, 2021 – Nov. 3, 2022
| Booster | Service | Launches | Satellites | Secondary Payloads |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcon 9 | Starlink | 49 | 2,600 | 6 |
| Falcon 9 (Transporter-1, 2) | Starlink | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Subtotal: | 51 | 2,613 | 6 | |
| Soyuz-2.1b | OneWeb | 8 | 284 | 0 |
| Soyuz ST-B | OneWeb | 1 | 34 | 0 |
| GSLV Mk III | OneWeb | 1 | 36 | 0 |
| Subtotal: | 10 | 354 | 0 | |
| Total: | 61 | 2,967 | 6 |
Source: Wikipedia
SpaceX has launched 49 Falcon 9 rockets carrying 2,600 Starlink satellites and six secondary payloads since the beginning of 2021. Two Transporter flights carried an additional 13 Starlink satellites into orbit. In total, SpaceX has launched 3,568 satellites on 65 dedicated Falcon 9 missions and three rideshare flights since Feb. 22, 2018.
Seven dedicated launches orbited 354 OneWeb broadband satellites during the same period. Nine Russian Soyuz rockets and one GSLV Mk III booster have launched 354 OneWeb satellites since January 2021. A total of 464 OneWeb satellites have been launched aboard 14 rockets since Feb. 27, 2019.
LauncherOne ignites after being dropped from Cosmic Girl. (Credit: Virgin Orbit)
A Tall Order
The majority of smaller satellites have been launched during rideshare missions or as secondary payloads on large rockets.
Rideshare & Secondary Payload Launches*
Payload Capacity to Orbit: 1,500 kg and Above
Jan. 1, 2021 – Nov. 2, 2022
| Providers | Customer Payloads |
Starlink Satellites |
SpaceBee Satellites |
Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX Transporter Rideshares | 419 | 13 | 12 | 444 |
| Other Rideshares | 204 | 0 | 0 | 204 |
| Subtotal: | 623 | 13 | 12 | 648 |
| SpaceX Secondary | 40 | 0 | 0 | 40 |
| Other Secondary | 20 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
| Subtotal: | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 683 | 13 | 12 | 708 |
* Excludes Starlink & OneWeb Launches
Source: Wikipedia
Rideshare launches by large rockets have carried 648 payloads into orbit since January 2021. SpaceX launched 444 of those payloads on only five Transporter missions. An additional 60 satellites have been orbited as secondary payloads on a range of launch vehicles. Nine payloads were lost in two launch accidents.
By comparison, 39 launches of smaller boosters have orbited 169 satellites. Eleven launch failures resulted in the loss of 30 spacecraft.
It’s a very difficult market for small satellite providers. Launch tends to be a high-cost enterprise with low profit margins. And providers flying expendable boosters are up against SpaceX, a company that has reused the first stages of its Falcon rockets up to 14 times.
In the next article, we will examine how small launch companies are marketing their services and pivoting to the meet the challenges posed by SpaceX and other large launch providers.